Alaves vs Malaga Preview: Hosts Favoured Against Winless Visitors

Malaga’s winless start and defensive record make Alaves the stronger pick at Estadio de Mendizorroza, even as the hosts arrive on a five-match run without a league victory. The matchup brings together two sides short on recent form, but the gap in their season records is clear: Alaves sit seventh with 11 points, while Malaga are bottom with four.

Alaves have the better platform at home

Alaves opened the campaign with three wins and a draw from their first four league matches. Their results have since turned sharply: one draw and four defeats across the next five have left them only two points clear of 15th place. They have scored 13 goals and conceded 10, with three clean sheets.

The hosts’ clearest advantage is their record at Mendizorroza. All three of their league wins have come at home, and they have taken three victories from five home matches so far. Malaga, by contrast, have lost three of four away fixtures. Alaves rank fifth on the home and away comparison in the supplied figures; Malaga rank 18th.

Quique Sanchez Flores has no fresh injury concerns, though Mikel Rodriguez and Facundo Garces remain unavailable with cruciate ligament injuries. That leaves the coach without two long-term options, but the source reports no other new absences for the home side.

Malaga’s poor run has deepened

Malaga arrive after a 5-2 home defeat to Real Sociedad. They remain the only team in the Spanish top flight without a win, with four points from a possible 27. Their six goals scored and 18 conceded underline the challenge facing Juan Funes’ side, particularly away from home.

Availability adds to the visitors’ problems. Julen Lobete is out for the season with a cruciate ligament injury, while Diego Murillo is expected to miss matches until January with the same injury. Aaron Ochoa, Joaquin Munoz and Juan Cruz are also listed as unavailable, with meniscus, calf and hamstring issues respectively. That leaves Malaga with as many as five players sidelined.

There are a couple of attacking signs to build on. Adrian Nino has scored in each of his last two league appearances and is expected to partner Chupete up front. Pablo Martinez, credited with two assists, is set to start in midfield. Four of Malaga’s last five matches have seen both teams score, though the side’s inability to turn that attacking contribution into a win remains the central concern.

Recent meetings favour the hosts

This is the clubs’ first meeting since May 2023 and their first top-flight clash since May 2018. Alaves have won four of the last five encounters and have lost only once in their last eight meetings, recording five wins and two draws in that span.

The history also points to a physical contest: at least five cards were shown in eight of the last nine meetings. That pattern, combined with Malaga’s recent tendency to concede while still finding the net, gives the match more angles than a straightforward home-win call.

Form guide and key numbers

Both teams have struggled in their last five league matches. Alaves’ sequence is four losses and a draw, while Malaga have two draws and three defeats. The form table places Alaves 20th and Malaga 19th over that period, despite Malaga collecting two points to Alaves’ one. Alaves scored three goals and conceded seven; Malaga scored five and let in 11.

Across all competitions, the listed five-match sequences are the same as their league runs. Those figures explain why Alaves’ season-long home performance and their head-to-head edge carry more weight in this preview than either side’s immediate momentum.

For the match result, Alaves are priced at 4/5 (1.80). Both teams to score is listed at 1/1 (2.00), while over 4.5 total cards is priced at 21/10 (2.05). The card selection aligns with the recent meetings; the goals angle reflects Malaga’s record of both scoring and conceding in four of their last five fixtures.

Prediction: Alaves 3-1 Malaga

Alaves look well placed to end their winless spell. Their home results, Malaga’s league position and away record, and the hosts’ recent dominance in this fixture all point toward a home victory. Malaga have shown enough in attack to make a clean sheet less certain, so a 3-1 scoreline is the pick.

The listed tips are Alaves to win at 4/5 (1.80), both teams to score at 1/1 (2.00), and over 4.5 cards at 21/10 (2.05). A combined Alaves win and both teams to score is priced at 31/10 (4.10), while the correct-score selection of 3-1 is 15/1 (16.00).

Alaves vs Malaga — Whispers' Tips

> Over 4.5 total cards at 21/10 (2.05) | Likelihood: Probable

> BTTS – Yes at 1/1 (2.00) | Likelihood: Probable

> Match result: Alaves at 4/5 (1.80) | Likelihood: Probable

> Alaves & BTTS – Yes at 31/10 (4.10) | Likelihood: Possible

> Correct Score: 3-1 at 15/1 (16.00) | Likelihood: Outsider

The decisive factor is likely to be whether Malaga can sustain their recent scoring signs against a home side whose strongest results have come at Mendizorroza. If Alaves make that advantage count, the visitors’ search for a first league win will continue.